Monday, September 13, 2010

Tricky Session / Equity Analysis

Today I have a day as a holiday, make some things in the morning and I was lunching with my wife parents, since July (that I wasn't launching with them).

Afternoon I made 2 poker sessions, on the 1st one I played 4 tables and made a smaller profit. On the second session I did not make ITM on the 5 tables that I played at the same time. The tricky thing is the spots that I lost with the hands that I shove.

1st table: blinds were at level 3, preflop player 3 bets MP, everyone folds and I flat call on the big blind with AKo, on a paired board at the flop (772) he bets 2/3 of the pot and I push thinking the flop did not hit him, and he calls with pocket nines, my equity is 44% against his 55% equity and I lost.

By the way, this is preflop equity (not on the flop).

Probably I should check the flop and fold to a bet, still early and I still have more than 20 big blinds.

2nd table: I have 12 big blinds, one limper at MP and I have AKo so i decide to push, the button "awakes up" with pocket aces.

3rd table: I am at the small blind with ATo and 16 big blinds, the button shoves and I call. He has A9s.

My equity: 68%
His equity: 31%

He wins by making a straight on the turn (8TJ/7)

4rd table: I have 11 big blinds, a UTG+1 3 bets, I have AKo in LP and I push he calls with AJo.

My equity: 74%
His equity: 25%

He flops the Jack and make 3 of a kind on the turn.

5rd table: with only 5 big blinds left I push with my pocket teens after one limper, the big blind calls and the limper folds, the big blind has A5o.

My equity: 70%
His equity: 30%

And he flops the Ace.

Wednesday, September 08, 2010

45 Man SNG Hands Analysis

Been playing this week with some 3 tabling sessions, summing up to 12 tables for the all day. Hit another minor stretch on the 6 man, losing hands like AK to KK, KQs to ace rag hand and QQ against a flush. Anyway I am happy the way I have been playing.

I played some 45 man Turbo SNGs, and I won my first $3.25 Turbo 45 man today. I had some interesting hands that I would like to share with you guys. These hands were the turnaround on the tournament, where I doubled up my stack or eliminated some player.

Hand 1
##########################################
Blinds : 100/200
6 players

[SB] Player1 (2255)
[BB] lmagalhaes (1365)
[1] Player3 (4865)
[2] Player4 (1725)
[3] Player5 (3165)
[But] Player6 (5555)

lmagalhaes 4 4 Initial Pot: 300
Player3 raises to 600

Player1,Player4,Player5,Player6 folds
lmagalhaes is All in
Player3 calls 765

### FLOP ### 3 7 7 Pot: 2830
### TURN ### 3 Pot: 2830
### RIVER ### 9 Pot: 2830

lmagalhaes shows 4 4
Player3 shows J A
lmagalhaes wins 2830 from the main pot with Two pairs, sevens and fours

I only have 7 big blinds or an M of 4.55, so I am on the push/fold mode. Any pair is a shove for me so I think I made the right decision.
I think the player call is not bad, he has a strong hand. The only thing is that he has more than 20 big blinds, so folding is not so bad either to him.

Hand 2

##########################################
Blinds : 200/400 - Ante 25.0
7 players

[SB] nw... (9345)
[BB] bv... (4745)
[1] Al... (6445)
[2] KL... (2760)
[3] lmagalhaes (1535)
[4] fl... (9855)
[But] Re... (2975)

lmagalhaes K 7 Initial Pot: 775

Al... folds

KL... folds
lmagalhaes is All in
fl... folds
Re... folds
nw... calls 1310
bv... is All in

nw... calls 3210

### FLOP ### 3 K 9 Pot: 11125
### TURN ### 5 Pot: 11125
### RIVER ### 8 Pot: 11125

nw... shows Q A
bv... shows Q Q
lmagalhaes shows K 7

lmagalhaes wins 4705 from the main pot with A Pair of kings
bv... wins 6420 from side pot n°1 with A Pair of queens

On this hand I was very lucky to flop the king. I still think that I made the right decision, I was already blinded out with only 3 big blinds so I must push with any face card, specially a King with a not so bad kicker.

Hand 3

##########################################
Blinds : 600/1200 - Ante 75.0
7 players

[SB] lmagalhaes (8304)
[BB] Qu... (3460)
[1] po... (7941)
[2] fl... (17531)
[3] gi... (7870)
[4] re... (11419)
[But] Al... (10975)

lmagalhaes T A Initial Pot: 2325
po... folds
fl... raises to 2600
gi... folds
re... folds
Al... folds
lmagalhaes is All in
Qu... is All in
fl... calls 5629

### FLOP ### 4 7 A Pot: 20368
### TURN ### K Pot: 20368
### RIVER ### 9 Pot: 20368

lmagalhaes shows T A
fl... shows K Q
Qu... shows 4 6

lmagalhaes wins 9688 from side pot n°1 with A Pair of aces
lmagalhaes wins 10680 from the main pot with A Pair of aces

I only have 6 big blinds, the player who min raises is doing that on the last hands and taking advantage of the tightness on the table. I was expecting him to fold to my shove, but this time he has a decent hand, but my hand is to strong to fold and I am not a fan of flat calling, specially to a loose aggressive player.
I won a nice pot on this hand and I was the chip leader at the table at this point of the game.

I really enjoy playing the 45s, I do not know why I abandoned these games, probably due to the variance but after losing 8 straight games on the regular 6 man SNG, and last month lost a bunch of games at the 9 man SNG, what type of SNG have more variance? Probably the 45s but not that much and the 45s gives a better ROI and $/hour (turbos) if you are a winning player.

Saturday, September 04, 2010

You Have No Choice But To Grind

"The Quitters Never Wins, The Winners Never Quits"

I had a major downswing last month and I am just posting to say that I recovered all that I lost and I have my bankroll on a new value. My main goal is to at least end the year on a $1k bankroll (at least).

Well, this is the evidence that when you study the game, put the effort on this game, make the right decisions, even if you lost that all-in on that particular game, you are going to win at long term.

Whenever you have a downswing trust on your game, review you hands played, find some leaks and the results will come. I am very satisfied with the last results, I am not saying that I will not have a downswing sooner or later, but whenever you have a downswing you have no choice but to keep grinding.

Here is a graph with the all my career on Pokerstars, I have more bankroll than what appears on the graph (due to some bonuses and deposits at the beginning of the last year).

Except 2 moments where I won some great cash on 2 MTTs, I was always grinding SNGs, starting at the $1 buy-in.