I was reading an old post from my blog, that has the title "2 Outer on the River", I posted on May this year. At the time I write that "I lost to a 2 outer on the river". Then, some nice guys did correct me on the comments to 4 outs and another one write 3 outs. Anyway, probably I did not explain very well my hand but the truth is 4 outs.
Let me explain better, step by step.
Preflop: I had AQo on the big blind, loose opponent has J7o on the cutoff and decides to play his hand. Preflop my hand has 66,7% Equity against his hand.
Flop: on the flop 3 cards are on the board, those cards are King of Hearts, Seven of Diamond and Teen of Diamond. Opponent make his pair of sevens, (bottom pair), and I have a nothing but a draw, a straight draw. If a jack comes on the turn or river I complete my draw and I make a straight.
Ignoring the opponent hand, (when playing the hand I do not know his cards), there are 4 cards, (4 jacks), "out there" to complete my draw, so at this moment I have 4 outs. The math says that I have 16% chances to win the hand (winning odds), or 17.2% to be exact.
At this moment I am behind to my opponent pair, so my equity is reduced to 35,9%.
Turn: The positive variance his at my side this time and I make my straight, and nice to me that my loose Opponent make his second pair, because he is willing to put more money on the pot unless he suspects that I had the straight.
At this moment there are only 4 cards to come from the deck that could beat my straight, those cards are: Jack of Spades, Jack of Diamond, Seven of Spades or Seven of Clubs. So my opponent has 4 outs to make his full house on the river, and not 2 outs like I write before.
The math says that he has only 8% chance to win (or 9,1% chance to be exact).
At this moment my equity increased to a huge 90,9%, I am a big favourite to win this hand. In the long run I win about 90% of the time against his hand with this board.
River: One of the 4 outs does come on the river with the Seven of Clubs, so my opponent does make his 9,1% winning chances and wins this hand with the full house, (3 Sevens + 2 Jacks)
Observations:
I do not have here the bet amounts present at the moment, so with a 16% chance on the flop a good player must figure out when playing if he isn't paying too much to go to the turn. This hand was played in a cash game (not a sit and go or a tournament).
Here is the original post.
The Mathematical Path To +EV Decisions.
Saturday, October 15, 2011
Words To Think About It
I want to leave here a link to a Portuguese poker player who wrote some correct and great things about having an edge in today's poker games, specially online poker. For the people who don't know portuguese language, there is some tools online to translate the text.
Thank you João Vieira.
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