Saturday, October 15, 2011

Past Hand Review

I was reading an old post from my blog, that has the title "2 Outer on the River", I posted on May this year. At the time I write that "I lost to a 2 outer on the river". Then, some nice guys did correct me on the comments to 4 outs and another one write 3 outs. Anyway, probably I did not explain very well my hand but the truth is 4 outs.

Let me explain better, step by step.
Preflop: I had AQo on the big blind, loose opponent has J7o on the cutoff and decides to play his hand. Preflop my hand has 66,7% Equity against his hand.

Flop: on the flop 3 cards are on the board, those cards are King of Hearts, Seven of Diamond and Teen of Diamond. Opponent make his pair of sevens, (bottom pair), and I have a nothing but a draw, a straight draw. If a jack comes on the turn or river I complete my draw and I make a straight.

Ignoring the opponent hand, (when playing the hand I do not know his cards), there are 4 cards, (4 jacks), "out there" to complete my draw, so at this moment I have 4 outs. The math says  that I have 16% chances to win the hand (winning odds), or 17.2% to be exact.
At this moment I am behind to my opponent pair, so my equity is reduced to 35,9%.

Turn: The positive variance his at my side this time and I make my straight, and nice to me that my loose Opponent make his second pair, because he is willing to put more money on the pot unless he suspects that I had the straight.

At this moment there are only 4 cards to come from the deck that could beat my straight, those cards are: Jack of Spades, Jack of Diamond, Seven of Spades or Seven of Clubs. So my opponent has 4 outs to make his full house on the river, and not 2 outs like I write before.
The math says that he has only 8% chance to win (or 9,1% chance to be exact).
At this moment my equity increased to a huge 90,9%, I am a big favourite to win this hand. In the long run I win about 90% of the time against his hand with this board.

River: One of the 4 outs does come on the river with the Seven of Clubs, so my opponent does make his 9,1% winning chances and wins this hand with the full house, (3 Sevens + 2 Jacks)

Observations:
I do not have here the bet amounts present at the moment, so with a 16% chance on the flop a good player must figure out when playing if he isn't paying too much to go to the turn. This hand was played in a cash game (not a sit and go or a tournament).

Here is the original post.

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